Tuesday, November 02, 2004
Melissa Bean wins!!!
Prediction for the election
1) Kerry will win Electoral College by 311-244 (Gore 2000 states + FL + NH + OH.).
2) Kerry will win DuPage County (If it ever happens, barely.).
3) Alan Keyes will only get 25% of the vote.
4) Melissa Bean will beat Phil Crane.
5) (I am afraid it won't happen . . ., but still.) Christine Cegelis will beat Henry Hyde.
Voted around 3 p.m.
According to poll workers, the turnout is high compared to past years.
Friday, October 22, 2004
Naperville Sun: Shut up, you are "a clear minority"
Ballot mistakes probably honest, certainly dumbI do agree with the editorial that the DuPage County Democratic Party Chairwoman Gayl Ferraro is a little overreacting, but still, whoever wrote this editorial definitely sounds like that person has something against Democrats. These two sentences illustrate that point.
The whining coming from the ranks of the DuPage Democrats about the mistakes made on the DuPage County Election Commission's sample ballot is mere election-year hyperbole.
Democratic candidate Christine Cegelis, who is running against longtime Republican incumbent Henry Hyde in the 6th Congressional District, said "This was not an honest mistake" after her name was left off the sample ballot in that race and placed in a different race.
DuPage County Democratic Party Chairwoman Gayl Ferraro called the mistakes "a blatant and coordinated effort by DuPage County Republican officials to turn the election in their favor" and threatened to sue unless the situation was remedied to her party's satisfaction.
In case you've never paid any attention to a sample ballot, it is inserted in newspapers, including this one, before an election.
Other errors on the ballot included giving voters instructions on the table-of-contents page to vote for two DuPage County Board and Forest Preserve District candidates, though voters can choose only one for their vote to count.
The ballot containing the errors is running in today's Sun. The Election Commission is going to publish a corrected notice in this paper Oct. 29 and in other local papers in which the incorrect notice was published.
The Democrats' complaining is overdrawn. It is doubtful these are anything more than honest mistakes, and the Election Commission moved quickly to issue a corrected notice.
As for it being done on purpose to sabotage Democrats, we question what the commission would have to gain by playing dirty politics in such an easily detectable fashion and in making the commission appear inept to boot.
Democrats are still a clear minority in DuPage County, and this probably gives them more free publicity than they have enjoyed in some time. Chilling out would seem to be a reasonable course to take.
As for the Election Commission, though we can sympathize with someone who lets an error get in print, this certainly does not make it look as competent as people would like.
We hope the commission intends to double-, triple- and quadruple-check the ballots themselves.
The whining coming from the ranks of the DuPage Democrats about the mistakes made on the DuPage County Election Commission's sample ballot is mere election-year hyperbole.Oh, yes, it is true that Democrats are still minority in DuPage County, however, the number of Republican voters in DuPage County have been going up and down for the past 20 years while the number of Democratic voters have been steadily increasing since 1984. Also, in case this publication hasn't noticed, Al Gore got about 42% of the vote in this County in 2000 Presidential election while another 2% went to Nader, and 42% of ballots cast in March 2004 primary were Democratic (Barack Obama got more votes in the primary than pervert Jack Ryan in DuPage County.). Since Democrats are getting low to mid 40% range of the vote "even" in this county, I don't think they should be called or treated as "a clear minority."
. . .
Democrats are still a clear minority in DuPage County, and this probably gives them more free publicity than they have enjoyed in some time. Chilling out would seem to be a reasonable course to take.
Can this possibly be a coincidence?
The above picture is a picture of a sample ballot that was distributed with several local newspapers. Several media outlets have written a story about this incident.
Chicago Tribune: Mistake in guide for voters decried.
Daily Herald: Candidate angry her name was left out of newspaper ad
Courier News: DuPage Democrats decry sample ballot errors
Candidate angry her name was left out of newspaper ad
By Stacy St. Clair Daily Herald Staff Writer
U.S. Rep. Henry Hyde has competition in the upcoming election - no matter what was in local newspapers Wednesday.
The DuPage County Election Commission left Democratic challenger Christine Cegelis' name off of the sample ballot printed in 43 area newspapers.
The sample, which the county is required by law to publish, shows the incumbent Hyde running unopposed in the 6th Congressional District. Cegelis is listed as an unchallenged candidate for the 41st Illinois Senate seat, a race in which state Sen. Christine Radogno is the only choice.
DuPage election officials say the error was unintentional, but Cegelis doesn't believe it.
"This is the most hotly contested race in DuPage County," she said. "I can't believe it was an honest mistake."
Robert T. Saar, the election commission's director, said he is investigating how the error occurred. The sample ballot printed on the county's Internet site is correct, as are the candidate listings in the office's computers.
Absentee ballots - many of which already have been punched - show a Hyde-Cegelis race, he said. The Nov. 2 ballots also have both names.
"How we made this mistake is beyond me," he said. "This isn't supposed to happen. We take our jobs very seriously."
The Rolling Meadows Democrat thinks her name may have been deleted by a someone in the Republican party, which has members controlling - and staffing - all countywide offices. DuPage makes up 60 percent of the 6th Congressional District, while the northwest suburbs account for 40 percent.
"It's disturbing," Cegelis said. "I thought that this would be a fair election. I was wrong."
Cegelis said she does not believe Hyde, who has been in Congress for 30 years, had anything to do with the error.
Saar denies his staff would sabotage the sample ballot.
"I know what it looks like to her," he said. "I grieve about that. I work very, very hard to impart a level of confidence with the parties that this office is fair and impartial."
The commission will reprint two corrected pages of the sample ballot in local papers, in accordance with state law, Saar said. The county will absorb the cost for the second printing.
Cegelis, however, wants the county to publish the entire ballot again. Otherwise, she says she will be at a disadvantage with voters who take the sample into the voting booth with them.
"This could hurt my campaign," she said. "This does not give me any confidence in DuPage County's ability to hold a fair election."
Newspaper: Election board to print corrections
DuPage Democrats decry sample ballot errorsI don't know. Even if this error was an honest mistake, it is a really flimsy one. Perhaps DuPage Election Commission still has an "heavily GOP" mentality that assumes that Democrats don't put up a candidate for 6th Congressional District (Democrats have put up a candidate everytime Henry Hyde ran for re-election.). Regardless, all I can say is, at least some TV news covered this incident, so at least Christine got some free media publicity.
By Katie Foutz
WHEATON — The DuPage Election Commission hopes to start correcting errors today in a sample ballot that has county Democrats in an uproar.
The sample DuPage County ballot printed in 43 area newspapers this week misplaced a Democratic congressional candidate and instructed voters to choose two candidates in a race where only one will be elected.
A corrected notice will be published beginning today, said Robert Saar, election commission executive director.
Saar said he does not know what caused the errors, but he is talking with printers and staff members to find out.
The legal notice put Democratic congressional candidate Christine Cegelis in the wrong race and listed Republican U.S. Rep Henry Hyde as running unopposed. Cegelis, in fact, is challenging Hyde for the 6th Congressional District seat, which represents parts of northern and central DuPage County and northwestern Cook County.
Instead of being listed in the congressional race, Cegelis was listed as a candidate in the 41st Illinois Senate District race, where Christine Radogno, R-La Grange, is running unopposed for re-election. Radogno was left completely off the sample ballot.
Cegelis said the mistake could cost her the election and questioned the integrity of the DuPage Election Commission.
"This was not an honest mistake," Cegelis, a Rolling Meadows resident, said in a statement.
On the sample ballot's table of contents page, voters also are instructed that two candidates will be elected in each of the DuPage County Board and forest preserve district races. Yet voters can pick only one.
DuPage County Democratic Party Chairman Gayl Ferraro called the mistakes "a blatant and coordinated effort by DuPage County Republican officials to turn the election in their favor." She threatened to sue the election commission if the errors are not corrected to her party's satisfaction.
Saar said it's a heated political season.
"I can understand why they're upset, but with that said, this office has a long tradition of working very closely with both political parties," he said. "The door is open here to all parties."
Saar said the errors do not affect any ballots, tabulation programs, canvas reports or any other election commission publications, including the department's Web site. He stands by his 23-year track record at the county, where he's been through more than 100 discovery recounts.
"There have not been dissatisfied customers that scrutinized this office that have found anything in the polling places, tabulations or ballots that would point to anything but fair and accurate and clean elections," Saar said.
Good news: DCCC is sending money to Melissa Bean
National Republicans began a network television ad buy in the high-priced Chicago media market on Wednesday, the surest acknowledgement yet from the party that veteran Illinois Rep. Phil Crane (R) is in danger of losing re-election.
Bean, with the help of local editorials endorsing her bid, has hammered home her argument that Crane has become an ineffective seat warmer after more than three decades in the House. While Bean is not yet on television, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has been slamming Crane in mail pieces. The committee dropped $370,000 in mail on Bean's behalf last week.
"When Phil Crane first went to Congress in 1969, Gayle Sayers was playing for the Bears and Woodstock was the big summertime happening," one piece reads. "But after 35 years in Congress, Phil Crane isn't passing landmark legislation. Instead, he's taken a record number of lobbyist funded junkets and violating the Congressional gift ban."
The charge stems from a recent National Public Radio report that found that since 2000, Crane has accepted $109,000 in free trips paid for by special interests and lobbyists.
"[Rep.] Ray LaHood [R-Ill.] and Speaker Hastert are doing a great job of making Melissa Bean's point," said DCCC spokesman Greg Speed, referring to previous comments LaHood made dogging his fellow colleague's attention to matters back home. "That Phil Crane has been out of touch with this district for far too long."
That amount is comparable to what Phil Crane is going to spend on TV ads ($400,000). NRCC is spending $70,000 on cable ads, but now that DCCC is sending a lot of money to the Bean campaign, I won't be surprised if NRCC is going to send more money to Crane. DCCC must be thinking that Crane is very beatable, otherwise it won't be sending this much money this late in the campaign.
The League of Conservation Voters targeting Phil Crane
State Republicans reaching out to support Crane's campaign
By Joseph Ryan Daily Herald Staff Writer
The state Republican Party is setting up a Wauconda voter outreach office to prod the party loyal to the polls in a tight race between Congressman Phil Crane and Democrat Melissa Bean.
Crane and area party leaders have said they are concerned a lackluster U.S. Senate race and President Bush's disinterest in Illinois campaigning could dampen party turnout on Election Day.
The 35-year Wauconda incumbent is facing an aggressive challenge from Bean, who lost her first challenge to Crane in 2002 by about 8 percent of the vote.
"This will maximize the Republican vote, especially in areas we know will deliver," state party spokesman John McGovern said.
The race is also drawing Crane support from the Republican Congressional Committee, which is running $70,000 in cable TV ads attacking Bean.
Meanwhile, the Bean campaign has more than 1,000 volunteers, said spokesman Brian Herman. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has sent out two mass mailings criticizing Crane.
On Monday, The League of Conservation Voters put Crane on its target list, hoping to inspire local environmentalists to vote Bean.
Here is a press release by The League of Conservation Voters.
I am not surprised that Crane is being targeted because of his anti-environmental voting record in Congress. For example, he has repeatedly voted against Superfund, and has done very little to help clean up an abandoned toxic waste dump in his supposed home town of Wauconda where some residents' water wells have been contaminated with Vinyl Chloride -- a cancer-causing substance seeping into the groundwater from the toxic waste dump.
League of Conservation Voters Launches TV Ad Criticizing Rep. Crane for
Being Out-of-Touch With His Constituents
As Member of LCV's Dirty Dozen List of Anti-Environment Candidates, Crane Sides with Corporate Polluters Over Illinois Families
October 20, 2004
Contact: Chuck Porcari (cell: (240) 286-7566) or Mark Sokolove (cell: (703) 599-7656) or (202) 785-8683
WASHINGTON, DC - The League of Conservation Voters (LCV), the political voice of the national environmental and conservation community, today launched a new TV ad criticizing Representative Phil Crane (R-IL) for being out of touch and putting special interest ahead of his constituents. Earlier this week, LCV named Rep. Crane to its 2004 "Dirty Dozen" list of anti-environment candidates.
The TV ad, titled "Touch," starts running today through Election Day in the Chicagoland market.
"Rep. Crane has been out of state and out of touch with his constituents,'" said LCV Senior Vice President for Political Affairs Mark Longabaugh. "Whether its taking special interest junkets or providing special interest policy paybacks like easing the ability for oil drilling in Lake Michigan, Rep. Crane has repeatedly sided with corporate interests over Illinois families - that is why as the political voice of the national environmental movement we are educating voters in the 8th Congressional district about his abysmal record."
In both 2003 and 2004, Rep. Crane voted for deeply flawed energy legislation that provides billions in tax giveaways to corporate polluters and special interests while threatening the health and safety of Illinois families and costing the state's taxpayers more than $1.8 billion. Crane has also catered to his campaign contributors in the utility industry by voting to weaken the Clean Air Act, and has voted for legislation that could make it easier for oil companies to drill in Lake Michigan. Rep. Crane has an abysmal 10% LCV voting score for 2003.
To view the ad, visit http://www.lcv.org/.
The nonprofit League of Conservation Voters (LCV) is the political voice of the national environmental and conservation community. LCV, which is not a partisan organization, is the only national organization working full-time to hold Congress and the president accountable for their environmental actions. For more information, please visit us on the web at http://www.lcv.org/.
Thursday, October 21, 2004
I finally saw the negative TV ad against Melissa Bean
Tuesday, October 19, 2004
Keyes Media Central?
I sort of find this news release funny because Keyes himself has said, "One of my first priorities in the U.S. Senate would be to ban publication of polls within 45 days of an election." Besides that, I read that Obama has already prepaid most of his TV ads, but Keyes has not purchased his TV ads yet. I am personally skeptical of Keyes support in Chicago suburbs like DuPage County because even in presumably the most conservative town of DuPage County, Wheaton where I live, Democratic yardsigns (Kerry/Obama/Cegelis) easily outnumber Keyes yardsigns by 3 to 1. Furthermore, many households in Wheaton who have a Bush yardsign often don't have a Keyes yardsign to go along with it probably because it is too embarrassing (It is like declaring to the rest of the neighbors that your household is an extremist household.). Based on that observation, my feeling is that his support is pretty lukewarm even in Wheaton and presumably the entire DuPage County. My prediction is that Barack Obama should have no problem getting 55% of the vote in DuPage County.
Keyes closing in on Obama
Jumps 20-30% in "collar counties"
October 19, 2004
Keyes Media Central
This is a SPECIAL MESSAGE from Alan Keyes' "Keyes Media Central."
The mainstream media and the political "experts" said it couldn't be done ...
But Alan Keyes is actually CLOSING IN on Barack Obama, and the Illinois media are in an uproar! YOU can help "Close The Gap" today:
As the press are reporting, in less than two months, the Keyes campaign raised over 1.3 MILLION dollars ... and the Obama campaign "burned through" over 8 MILLION, with very little to show for it.
That leaves the two campaigns NEARLY EVEN in cash-on-hand for this "final stretch" to election day! The GAME is ON like never before -- and we can WIN this race, just by CLOSING THE GAP!
As the campaign's third-quarter report to the Federal Election Commission shows, Alan Keyes has broad-based support from the grassroots all over Illinois, and, in fact, America. Given that Alan stands for the kind of traditional, common-sense values shared by the majority of voters in America's heartland, that makes perfect sense.
In just seven weeks, the Keyes campaign raised $1,349,679 from 20,176 individual contributors and ONLY FIVE PACs and political party committees. The individual contributions accounted for $1,309,015 -- a stunning 97 PERCENT. And when you divide the total amount contributed by the number of contributions, you learn that the average contribution to the Keyes for Senate campaign was a remarkably low $65 per donor -- more evidence of a TRUE grassroots campaign.
Contrast that with radical leftist Barack Obama, who's been vacuuming up tons of money from every special interest group you can name, and the difference couldn't be clearer: Alan Keyes is the candidate who believes there's no interest more special than the citizens of Illinois, while Barack Obama seems to be the candidate wearing a "For Sale" sign on his back.
What's more, the Keyes campaign has spent only $222,000, leaving $1.1 million cash-on-hand. As the campaign enters its closing weeks, and voters finally begin to tune in, we will have the financial resources necessary to spread Alan's message when it COUNTS the MOST.
Barack Obama, who had raised $9.8 million, has wasted millions of it -- which means he only has $1.8 million cash-on-hand.
You read that right: that means there's ONLY $700,000 difference between the two campaigns for the most important time: the final two weeks!
We have the opportunity RIGHT NOW to actually CATCH UP to Obama's campaign, win over the crucial "undecided" voters in the critical areas of the state, and DUMBFOUND the "pundits" by WINNING on November 2nd -- and send a STRONG, PRINCIPLED conservative to the U.S. Senate!
The pollsters have wanted this race to be a foregone conclusion since before Alan entered the race. WE are SURGING in the grassroots, while Obama's campaign has smugly relied on their candidate's anointing by the dishonest mainstream media. Obama will lose his shallow, bought-and-paid-for support if we can show our momentum with Illinois voters! CAN YOU HELP NOW?
Remember, all we need to do is break through during the next two weeks to undecided voters in the expensive urban media markets of Chicago, Springfield, and St. Louis. This is money well-spent, because news "reporting" and the unreliability of the media's polling notwithstanding, a recent media survey reveals:
* In the "collar counties" (Lake, McHenry, DuPage, Will, Kane), the race is now a dead-heat (47-46 Obama).
* This is a VERY telling number for several reasons:
o The collar counties represent 20% of the statewide vote.
o These counties traditionally have more of the liberal GOP electoral element, and were not expected to be strong Keyes country.
o Since most of the earlier polls, Keyes has moved up in the collar counties by 20-30 points!
THIS NEWS IS POLITICAL DYNAMITE. The Illinois media are STUNNED by the campaign's fundraising strength, and by the fact that in key areas -- "moderate country" where the campaign has been working hard and Alan Keyes was relatively unknown and unwelcome -- Alan has moved in the last three weeks to a statistical TIE! But the campaign needs your help TODAY to raise that last $700,000 to match Barack Obama's much-depleted war chest:
Illinois voters will have a clear choice in this election: they can choose a candidate who agrees with them on fundamental principles like a strong national defense, limited government, greater individual liberty, and traditional moral values, or they can choose a man funded by the special interests, who wants to MASSIVELY raise taxes to fuel more and more wasteful Big Government spending programs. Wherever you live, YOU can help make sure the RIGHT man is sent to the U.S. Senate from Illinois. Please make your most generous contribution TODAY -- with only TWO WEEKS left, every penny counts, and your donation is CRUCIAL:
If you prefer to mail in your donation, please send your check TODAY to:
(Under FEC law, the maximum legal contribution per election is $2,000 per person. Individuals may give $2,000 each to the primary and general elections. Couples may give up to $4,000 from common funds for the primary and general elections, but both signatures must be on the account. Contributions to Keyes 2004 are not considered deductible for federal income tax purposes. No corporate funds are accepted.)
You can sign up for the Keyes Media Central e-mail list for FREE! Send a blank message to: firstname.lastname@example.org.
Be sure to visit the official Keyes campaign website at www.Keyes2004.com.
Chicago Sun-Times Keyes incest comment
Keyes says incest awaits kids of gays
October 17, 2004
BY CHERYL V. JACKSON Staff Reporter
U.S. Senate candidate Alan Keyes told a rally Saturday that incest was "inevitable" for children raised by gay couples because the children might not know both biological parents.
"If we do not know who the mother is, who the father is, without knowing all the brothers and sisters, incest becomes inevitable," Keyes told the Marquette Park rally held to oppose same-sex marriages.
"Whether they mean it or not, that is what will happen. If you are masked from your knowing your biological parents, you are in danger of encountering brothers and sisters you have no knowledge of."
Across a road in the park, about 40 gay-rights proponents jeered. One said the frequently controversial Keyes, a Republican running against Democratic state Sen. Barack Obama, was trying to stir up voters.
"He's saying that as an incendiary remark to ignite [and] upset moderates and the mainstream," said Blake Wilkinson, a member of the Chicago Anti-Bashing Network, which staged a counter-demonstration with Equal Marriage NOW! and the black gay group Church of the Open Door. "I was raised to believe you grow up and marry the person you love."
The "United We Stand -- Defending Marriage" rally, staged by the groups Illinois Family Institute and Concerned Women for America, featured a procession of speakers, including religious leaders from various cultures. Among the approximately 150 people present were families huddling to keep warm. The event
is part of a 14-city Illinois tour to push for a state constitutional amendment denying recognition and benefits to gay civil unions, moves other states have made or are considering.
About 20 police officers were on hand at the park, which in the 1960s saw opponents of equal housing rights hurl rocks and jeers at Martin Luther King Jr. There was no violence Saturday.
Monday, October 18, 2004
Illinois Family Institute located near an abortion clinic
Republican yardsigns getting stolen in Chicago suburbs
Alan Keyes does it again: Keyes incest comment
No, not even this time: Chicago Tribune endorses Bush over Kerry
Sunday, October 17, 2004
Crane vs Bean now considered a toss-up
Because IL-8 includes Republican-leaning McHenry County, until now, I considered this race as leaning-Republican as opposed to solid-Republican or toss-up. Although internal polls shouldn't normally be trusted, the Melissa Bean internal poll is showing that Crane below 50%, and Bean is behind only by 2%. To me, that's close enough to call it a toss-up, and now that it is considered very competitive, more political pundits will likely add this race to the list of the most competitive Congressional races.
POLITICAL NOTEBOOK: Most senior House Republican in re-election fight
WASHINGTON - Having served 17 terms, Illinois Rep. Phil Crane is the most senior Republican in the House. His quest for an 18th is proving difficult and has party strategists scrambling to fend off a challenge from Democrat Melissa Bean.
The result, according to GOP strategists, is that Crane ranks near the top of the list of incumbent Republicans most vulnerable to defeat this fall. Polls show his support 50 percent - a danger signal for any incumbent - with Bean only a few percentage points behind.I know Uncle Dick was in DeKalb recently, but I guess he is now going to be entering "hostile territory" (Illinois) again trying to bailout Crane.
In response, the White House has arranged for Vice President Dick Cheney and Education Secretary Rod Paige to visit Crane's district northwest of Chicago to help the veteran conservative. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Zoellick also has helped out Crane, who has used his seniority on the House Ways and Means Committee to carve out a record as a solid free-trader.I personally think NRCC calling J. Dennis "drug money" Hastert, "our own," is pretty strange because I don't think Hastert is terribly popular here in Illinois. Perhaps, they meant, "their own." Although he is well known, I don't think he can beat any Democrat in a state-wide race because his views are so much to the right of mainstream Illinois political views (As a state, I consider Illinois a moderately liberal state.).
The National Republican Congressional Committee, which advertises for GOP incumbents only in the tightest races, recently began a televised attack on Bean as an opponent of President Bush's tax cuts as well as a carpetbagger who lives outside the district. "Melissa Bean would support the radical Nancy Pelosi for speaker. And that means she'd vote against `our own' Speaker of the House, Dennis Hastert," according to the ad, which is airing on cable television. Hastert represents an adjoining congressional district in Illinois.I hope DCCC is sending enough money so that Melissa Bean can run TV ads in the expensive Chicago media market. I still haven't seen the Crane negative ads on TV, yet. I will discuss it after I see one.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is spending money in the race, hoping to swipe a district long in Republican hands. The committee distributed thousands of pieces of mail that criticize Crane for junketing and point out he first went to Congress when "The Brady Bunch" made its television debut. "Out of touch. Out of time," the fliers say.
Saturday, October 16, 2004
Melissa Bean internal poll
This is looking increasingly like one of our top pickup opportunities. The latest internal Bean poll shows:Crane campaign is dismissive, but if so, why aren't they releasing their own internal poll numbers? If Crane is so "comfortably ahead," why is his campaign now being forced to run TV ads in the expensive Chicago media market?
Crane (R) 46
Bean (D) 44
Melissa Bean campaign not wanting to be associated with Daily Kos is not a huge surprise, since Melissa Bean website or her literature doesn't mention that she is a Democrat. Melissa Bean distancing herself from her national party sounds eerily similar to what Erskine Bowles in North Carolina and Inez Tenenbaum in South Carolina are doing in their Senate races. After all, her district includes somewhat conservative McHenry County (and more liberal-leaning Lake County.), so that might be the reason.
The Crane campaign has dismissed those results publicly, saying its own polling shows their guy comfortably ahead. But they haven't released any of that polling which gives cause for suspicion. And in any case GOP turnout in Illinois should be rock bottom, given that the presidential race is non-existent in the state, and the Senate race has become an embarrassment for the state's Republicans.
Incidentally, I get a ton of requests for me to add Bean to the Kos Dozen. For the record, I tried a few months ago and the campaign turned the endorsement down unless I allowed them to vet everything I wrote about the campaign. That wasn't going to happen, obviously. While the campaign may be a bit blog-clueless, they're still going to kick Crane's ass. So feel free to help directly if you'd like.In contrast, Christine Cegelis doesn't go the distance to "Hyde" that she is a Democrat, and as a DuPage County resident, I am proud of that.
Friday, October 15, 2004
Huge increase in Democratic yardsigns in Wheaton mentioned by the media
Democrats seek a footholdI hate when Tribune still blindly calls DuPage County "GOP Stronghold."
Candidates hope for DuPage votes
By John Biemer
Tribune staff reporter
Published October 12, 2004
If history is any judge, elections should be no sweat for the five
incumbent Republicans on the DuPage County Board ballot--or for any other local
But more than a dozen Democratic candidates for local office tried Monday to show voters they do have alternatives even in the GOP stronghold. They gathered in Glen Ellyn with Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn, who pointed out that DuPage has more Democrats than any other Illinois county--except Cook." I think we're going to make some real upsets and inroads here in DuPage County," predicted Quinn, a Hinsdale native, before leading the candidates into a nearby Einstein Bagels and a Starbucks to meet patrons.I don't know if Republicans are getting scared of Democrats in DuPage, but it's getting there.
The following sentence confirms the huge increase in Democratic yardsigns in Wheaton and Glen Ellyn (Wheaton and Glen Ellyn are part of Milton Township) I have observed recently.
GOP leaders concede they can't just rest on their laurels anymore." The historical coattails are not there" this year, said County Board Chairman Robert Schillerstrom, the county GOP secretary. A similar combination gave Democrats a competitive showing at the polls in March--pulling more than 42 percent of the ballots countywide." The days of just putting a Republican's name on the ballot in DuPage County and going home and counting the numbers on Election Day are over," Schillerstrom said. "We cannot take it for granted any more, we need to work. So do I have concern? Yes, I have concern. I think we have to take these races seriously."
I personally think the following comment state Sen. Kirk Dillard (R-Hinsdale) is making is offensive to poor people of this society because one of the likely the reason DuPage County has low crime rate is because residents of DuPage County likely takes away disproportionate amount of wealth from the society, and people who have some wealth tend not to commit crime. In otherwords, low crime rate in DuPage is not necessarily an accomplishment of DuPage Republicans.
Gayl Ferraro, head of the county's Democratic Party, said dozens of residents--particularly from Milton Township--have been streaming each day into party headquarters in recent weeks to get John Kerry signs. "It's getting to where they're not afraid to just say, 'I'm a Democrat' and they're coming out and saying it and showing it," she said." I'm overwhelmed."Democratic leaders hope a surge of enthusiasm for the top of the ticket can carry a few DuPage candidates into office too.
They need simply to remind residents about DuPage's schools and parks, and its low taxes and crime rates, he said. "They're moving to our place for a reason, and those reasons are all of the things that Republicans have built," Dillard said.
Thursday, October 14, 2004
Biggest problem facing Bush: He may not be able to win big states won by Al Gore in 2000
Illinois Congressional races getting more national attention
I am surprised that Lane Evans's challenger Andrea Zinga is being mentioned in this article because I personally don't consider Evans vulnerable. With George W. Bush and Alan Keyes not being competitive in Illinois is likely going to depress Republican turnout which only helps Evans.
Capitol Hill veterans feeling heat from trio of fresh faces
MIKE ROBINSON Associated Press
CHICAGO - Three senior Illinois congressmen including 35-year House veteran Philip M. Crane are feeling the heat from aggressive, highly energized challengers who claim it's time to pump some fresh blood into the state's delegation on Capitol Hill. "Families throughout this district are frustrated that he has nothing to show for his 35 years in office and they are ready for a change," trumpets Democrat Melissa Bean, a 42-year-old technology consultant now on her second try at unseating Crane.
Elsewhere in the state, Rep. Lane Evans, the top Democrat on the House Veterans Affairs Committee, is being challenged by former TV anchorwoman Andrea Zinga in the 17th District, which starts in Rock Island and meanders as far south as Springfield. Zinga says she would be more energetic than the veteran lawmaker who is battling Parkinson's Disease. Evans, a former Marine and favorite of veterans and senior citizens groups, says he has all the gung ho anyone needs to stay on the job.
To me, a very conservative Congressman like Jerry Weller marrying a daughter of a brutal former dictator doesn't terribly surprise me because many conservatives still seem to consider aiding brutal South American dictators in the 1980s a good thing.
In the 11th District, running south from the Will County suburbs into central Illinois farm country, Rep. Jerry Weller, another Ways and Means member, faces a well organized challenge from Democrat Tari Renner. Renner, an Illinois Wesleyan University political science professor, says Weller has lost touch. He says that's obvious from the congressman's engagement to Zury Rios Sosa, daughter of a deposed Guatamalan dictator known for crushing dissent with an iron fist. Republicans say Rios Sosa's family history has nothing to do with Weller. Weller also has the benefit a redrawn district that includes a bumper crop of Republican voters, almost assuring the deputy Republican whip a return ticket to Washington.
Yes, Evans's district is a very odd shaped district, like Luis Gutierrez's (D-IL 4) district.
Most of the districts in the state were designed to help re-elect incumbents. The map, redrawn following the 2000 Census, reflects a deal adopted at the urging of House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., and Rep. William Lipinski, D-Ill. Evans' district is known for its oddly shaped lines, taking in all or part of 23 of the state's 102 counties. It is only one block wide through as it runs through Springfield on its way to Decatur, where it ropes in a concentration of reliable Democratic voters. "This gives new life to the whole concept of gerrymandering," says Knox College political scientist Robert Seibert. The Evans district is a dramatic example, but districts all over the state have been carved to minimize turnover, political experts say.
Still, the odds are that, Melissa Bean has the best chance of an upset.
If any race produces an upset, it is most likely to be Crane vs. Bean, experts say. Bean rolled up 43 percent of the vote when she challenged Crane two years ago, close enough to prompt Democratic contributors to reach for their wallets. She has been able to raise more money than most challengers this year. "I've been targeted, and as a result we've got our hands full in terms of the support she's been getting from the unions and the trial lawyers and every left-wing interest group," says Crane as he hustles through the district greeting voters. Crane still has more money than Bean, though. His war chest has been well stocked by corporate funding committees that appreciate his business-minded approach.
I guess I am not a fan of Lipinskis because their anti-abortion views. Regardless, Congress or State of Illinois should eventually pass a law banning someone who got through a primary from appointing someone to run instead like what the elder Lipinski did.
Even if the Nov. 2 voting produces no surprises, the Illinois delegation is guaranteed to have at least one fresh face when the new Congress is sworn in. After breezing to victory in the primary in his 4th district, Lipinski, 66, announced in August that he wouldn't run for re-election after all. He persuaded the party to run his son, Daniel Lipinski, a 37-year-old University of Tennessee political science professor, in his place. Critics claimed that was unfair because the younger Lipinski was effectively being installed in the seat without voters getting a chance to decide if they wanted him. But Democratic leaders dutifully approved the switch, virtually assuring Daniel Lipinski of election to the House; the Republican challenger is 26-year-old Ryan Chlada, a bar manager and Cicero city employee is his first run for public office.One thing I am not happy with this article is that it didn't mention Christine Cegelis who is running a strong grassroots campaign (As indicated from the Cegelis yardsigns outnumbering Hyde yardsigns by at least 3 to 1 in conservative towns like Wheaton and Glen Ellyn.). Also, the article doesn't discuss the underlying reasons why several Illinois Republican seats are vulnerable, most notably, infighting within the Illinois Republican party, changing voting pattern in previously conservative Chicago suburbs, and George W. Bush conceding Illinois, and Alan Keyes's disastrous Senate campaign in Illinois.
Phil Crane is getting more and more desperate, now he is going to run TV ads
Race moves to network TV ads By Eric Krol Daily Herald Political Writer
Posted Thursday, October 14, 2004
Longtime Republican Congressman Phil Crane is taking the unprecedented step of spending $400,000 on broadcast TV ads, and the national GOP is shelling out $70,000 for cable spots in his race against Democrat Melissa Bean. Both are signs the suburbs' hottest congressional race is tightening up considerably in the final three weeks of the campaign. Crane, 73, of Wauconda, and Bean, a 42-year-old business consultant from Barrington, are running in the 8th Congressional District, which includes parts of Northwest Cook, western Lake and eastern McHenry counties. The two faced off in 2002, with Bean getting 42.5 percent, closer than nearly every previous Democratic challenger. Crane, a 35-year incumbent, never has spent much, if any, money on TV ads during a general election contest. But starting the week before the Nov. 2 election, Crane is tapping his $1 million-plus campaign fund to air $400,000 worth of pricey ads on Chicago TV stations.
. . .
"You don't behave this way unless he was truly in trouble," said Eric Adelstein, a veteran Chicago campaign consultant working for Bean. "It's almost as if voters in that district have reached a tipping point with Phil Crane. It creates a dynamic where you really could have an upset." O'Sullivan maintained that a Crane poll completed last week shows the incumbent with a comfortable lead. Besides Crane's own ads, an official at Comcast confirmed the National Republican Congressional Committee began airing a new ad Wednesday seen by Northwest suburban cable TV viewers.
. . .
While broadcast TV ads allow Crane to reach more viewers, they're also more expensive and the vast majority of viewers live outside the 8th District. The cable ads can be pinpointed more directly and cost less, but reach fewer viewers. O'Sullivan argued the cable ad shows Crane is getting support from the national party while Bean is not. Bean has been trying in vain to get the attention of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which could run TV ads attacking Crane but has yet to do so. A Democratic spokesman declined to comment on the committee's strategy. In recent weeks, Crane has aired cable TV ads ripping Bean for changing her position on whether she supported the Bush tax cuts. Bean, who has raised $900,000 so far, has yet to respond with an ad of her own.
Wednesday, October 13, 2004
A very quiet political season here in the Chicago area
Tuesday, October 12, 2004
Yet, Chicago Tribune still blindly endorsing Hyde and Weller
Monday, October 11, 2004
Chicago Tribune endorsing Melissa Bean
Sunday, October 10, 2004
Several John Kerry bumper stickers spotted in "GOP Stronghold" DuPage County
Democratic yardsigns all over Wheaton and Glen Ellyn
1) John Kerry will win Illinois by 750,000 vote margin over George W. Bush.
2) John Kerry will get as many votes as George W. Bush "even" in DuPage County (Gore + Nader got about 45% in 2000.).
3) Barack Obama will win the U.S. Senate seat with 70% of the vote.
4) (Surprise! Surprise!) Christine Cegelis will beat Henry Hyde.
I know 2) and 4) seem a little far fetched, but based on the number of John Kerry and Christine Cegelis yardsigns I have seen in Wheaton and Glen Ellyn so far, who knows?
Democratic yardsigns I have seen in Wheaton so far
Bush - about 60
Support the Troops and President Bush yardsign - about 30
Keyes - about 10
Hyde - about 5
Kerry - about 25
Obama - about 23
Cegelis - about 27
Yesterday, I went to Glen Ellyn's Trader Joe's for shopping, and saw a few more candidate yardsigns along the way. Here is the number of additional candidate yardsigns I saw in Wheaton yeasterday.
Bush - 3
Support the Troops and President Bush yardsign - 0
Keyes - 1
Hyde - 1
Kerry - 4
Obama - 4
Cegelis - 4
Here is the number of candidate yardsigns I saw in Glen Ellyn yeasterday (On Hill Ave. and Park Ave. on route to Trader Joe's.).
Bush - 3
Support the Troops and President Bush yardsign - 1
Keyes - 1
Hyde - 1
Kerry - 4
Obama - 4
Cegelis - 4
I will provide some analysis of what these results mean in a different blog entry.